The January 2025 Visa Bulletin from the Department of State contained a warning for some EB-5 investors. It stated that the EB-5 set-aside rural and high unemployment categories could experience retrogression in 2025 for Chinese and Indian investors.
What exactly is retrogression? Why does retrogression sometimes occur in EB-5? What countries are most at risk?
What Is EB-5 Retrogression?
EB-5 retrogression refers to delays in the issuance of EB-5 visas, caused by high demand from certain countries. The United States allocates a limited number of EB-5 visas each year, with an annual cap on the number of visas available to nationals from each country. When the demand for visas exceeds the available supply, applicants from the affected countries face delays.
This delay is marked by a retrogression of the applicant’s priority date. The priority date is the date on which an applicant’s petition for an EB-5 visa is filed. When retrogression happens, the priority date “moves backward,” which means applicants have to wait longer for a visa to become available.
When Does EB-5 Retrogression Occur?
Retrogression occurs when the demand for EB-5 visas from a specific country surpasses the annual visa allocation for that country. Each year, the U.S. government issues a fixed number of EB-5 visas, and the number allocated to each country is subject to limitations based upon past participation. Once the cap for a particular country is reached, applicants from that country must wait until additional visas become available in the following fiscal year.
The Visa Bulletin provides updates on the current status of visa availability, including any retrogression in specific countries. When a country experiences retrogression, the priority dates for applicants from that country will move backward, meaning those applicants will face longer wait times before their visas can be processed.
Which Countries Are Most Likely to Experience EB-5 Retrogression?
Countries with high demand for EB-5 visas are more likely to experience retrogression. At the time of this article, China and India are experiencing retrogression in the EB-5 unreserved category, driven by a large number of cases filed prior to the EB-5 Reform and Integrity Act of 2022. These two countries are also most at risk of experiencing retrogression in the EB-5 set-aside categories at some point during 2025.
Historically, China has provided the most demand for EB-5 visas. While pre-RIA investors from China face a significant backlog, the new set aside categories have provided Chinese investors with a new path to a green card. As expected, demand for the set-aside category from mainland China investors has been steady.
Like China, Indian investors have seen the set-aside categories offer a new an unobstructed path to a green card. Demand has been steady, and especially popular among H-1B holders already residing in the United States due to the uncertainty around the H-1B program.
It is important to note that at the time of this article, both set-aside categories remain current for all countries, including mainland China and India. These two countries could retrogress at some point in 2025, but it is extremely difficult to predict when exactly this could occur.
How to Track EB-5 Retrogression
To monitor retrogression and understand the current status of visa availability, applicants and their immigration attorneys rely on the Visa Bulletin. The bulletin provides up-to-date information on which countries are facing retrogression and when priority dates are expected to become current again.
In addition to the Visa Bulletin, applicants can track developments in the EB-5 program through updates from the U.S. Department of State or by consulting immigration professionals.
